Bitcoin fair value

Fair value is our model of Bitcoin's long-term value, built from its full price history since 2011 (all daily prices). The model is fixed: past values do not change.

Power law is the long-term trend. Bitcoin's price has grown roughly in proportion to a power of its age: price ≈ a · tⁿ, where t is the time since the genesis block (3 January 2009) and the exponent n lies between 5 and 6. On a chart where both axes are logarithmic, such a power law becomes a straight line, which is why this chart is drawn log–log.

The power law was discovered by the physicist Giovanni Santostasi, creator of the Power Law Theory of Bitcoin. In his theory, the number of Bitcoin addresses grows roughly with the cube of time and the price with the square of the addresses, which together gives about the sixth power of time. More on his site: bitposeidon.com.

Bottom: the daily price has not been below this line since June 2011.

Top: on 97.5% of all days the price was below this line.

More: price prediction by year · what fair value means · the power law explained.

Past behaviour is no guarantee for the future. Not financial advice.