Bitcoin fair value
Bitcoin's price swings wildly, but over the years it has moved around a steady path. Fair value is that path: the price that is normal for Bitcoin's age and its place in the halving cycle.
Today, 5 November 2026 Bitcoin trades at $80,545, 30% below fair value. Live chart
- Fair value
- $116,000
- Bottom
- $65,900
- Top
- $284,000
Three lines
Fair value combines two things. Bitcoin's long-term growth follows a power law of its age. On top of that, every halving starts a four-year cycle in which the price first rises well above the trend, then falls back below it. The fair value follows both, and the cycle gets weaker as Bitcoin matures.
Bottom is a floor. Since June 2011 the daily price has not been below it, including the crashes of 2014, 2018, 2022 and the March 2020 Covid day.
Top marks unusually high prices: on 97.5% of all days the price was below it. Cycle peaks have come close to it or crossed it.
How to use it
The position between the lines says more than any single number. Near the bottom, Bitcoin has historically been cheap; near the top, expensive. Many people buy steadily and buy more when the price is below fair value. What that would have returned.
Fair value is not a price target. Bitcoin has spent years at a time above or below it. Use it to see where today's price stands in the long-term picture, not to time a day.
Why trust it, or not
The model is fixed. It was fitted once to every daily price since 2011 (5,760 days), and it does not adjust itself when new prices come in. Its past curve never changes, so anyone can check later how well today's forecast held up. The forecast year by year.
All of it rests on Bitcoin continuing to grow the way it has so far. A model of the past can't rule out a break with the past.
Questions
What is Bitcoin's fair value?
Fair value is the price our model considers normal for Bitcoin on a given day, given its age and its position in the four-year halving cycle. Today (5 November 2026) it is $116,000.
Is Bitcoin overvalued or undervalued right now?
At $80,545, Bitcoin trades 30% below fair value. Below fair value has historically been the cheaper half of the range, above it the more expensive half.
What is the lowest price Bitcoin can fall to?
Nobody knows. What we can say: since June 2011 the daily price has never been below the bottom line, which is at $65,900 today. The closest it came was on 30 June 2026.
Does the model change when the price moves?
No. The model was fitted once to all daily prices since 2011 and its curve is fixed, the past included. That makes it testable: what it shows today for 2030 is what it will still show in 2030.
Who discovered the Bitcoin power law?
The long-term trend underneath the fair value is the Bitcoin power law, discovered by the physicist Giovanni Santostasi. How the power law works.
Model estimates, not a promise: past behaviour is no guarantee for the future. Not financial advice.