Bitcoin outlook
A weather forecast for Bitcoin. Not a price target, but what happened all the other times Bitcoin stood where it stands today.
Bitcoin is close to the Bottom at $80,760. From comparable positions, the price was higher 12 months later on 100% of 572 days, in 8 separate periods since 2011.
- Likely in 12 months
- $121,000 – $235,000
- Wide range
- $106,000 – $318,000
- Price
- Middle half of outcomes
- 9 in 10 outcomes
- Bottom
| In | Higher than today | Middle half | 9 in 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 84% | $86,500 – $112,000 | $72,700 – $171,000 |
| 6 months | 98% | $92,800 – $143,000 | $86,400 – $210,000 |
| 12 months | 100% | $121,000 – $235,000 | $106,000 – $318,000 |
| 24 months | 100% | $235,000 – $336,000 | $174,000 – $391,000 |
From 572 past days within ±5 points of today's position (0 = Bottom, 100 = Top). Recomputed every day.
The same spot in earlier cycles
Each row is the first day of a period in which Bitcoin stood about where it stands today, and what the next 12 months brought.
| Date | Price | 12 months later | Deepest drop first |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 August 2023 | $26,047 | +124% | −3% |
| 7 September 2022 | $18,807 | +37% | −16% |
| 15 March 2020 | $5,166 | +1,045% | −3% |
| 31 May 2015 | $222 | +136% | ±0% |
| 13 January 2015 | $177 | +143% | ±0% |
| 27 October 2012 | $10.61 | +1,592% | ±0% |
| 12 May 2012 | $5.00 | +2,214% | ±0% |
| 4 January 2011 | $0.30 | +2,040% | ±0% |
Deepest drop first: the lowest daily price within those 12 months, against the price on that date. The early years grew much faster than a larger Bitcoin can; the ranges above account for that, this table does not.
How it works
Every day since 2011 has a position between the Bottom and the Top. The outlook takes all past days at about today's position and follows each of them for up to two years. How far each one moved between the lines is then applied to today, along the lines as they run from here. That last step matters: in 2012 Bitcoin could grow tenfold in a year, today it can't, and the lines already grow more slowly.
There is no extra model and nothing is tuned: the numbers are counts of what happened. When the price moves, the position moves, and the outlook changes with it.
When this would be wrong
Few cycles. 572 days sounds like a lot, but neighbouring days move together. What really counts are the 8 separate periods. A forecast from 8 cases can be badly wrong.
Bitcoin could change. All of this assumes that Bitcoin keeps behaving the way it has since 2011. A new kind of buyer, a ban or a crisis could break the pattern, and history would not show it in advance.
What steady buying would have returned
Questions
Will Bitcoin go up in the next 12 months?
Nobody knows. What history says: Bitcoin is close to the Bottom today, and from comparable positions the price was higher 12 months later on 100% of 572 days, in 8 separate periods since 2011. That is a frequency from the past, not a promise.
Where could the Bitcoin price be in a year?
The middle half of past outcomes, translated to today, ends between $121,000 and $235,000 on 5 November 2027, nine in ten between $106,000 and $318,000. The price prediction shows where the fair value runs over the next years.
How is this different from a price prediction?
A prediction names one number. The outlook shows how wide the outcomes were and how often the price ended higher, the way a weather forecast says "70% chance of rain" instead of promising a dry day.
Model estimates, not a promise: past behaviour is no guarantee for the future. Not financial advice.